More on the N.I.E. Report
December 19, 2007
Did Iran really abandon its nuclear military program?
That was the conclusion of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report released December 9, which stated, "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program."
But did it really stop?
For Israel, the answer to that is an existential question -- a matter of survival.
Since the release of the NIE report, Israeli officials -- past and present -- have attacked its primary finding and warned that the consequences of this report may have far-reaching implications.
For example, on Saturday night Avi Dichter, Israel's public security minister, warned of such implications.
"The American misconception concerning Iran's nuclear weapons may lead to a regional Yom Kippur [war], in which Israel will be among the countries that are threatened," Dichter said.
On Monday, The Jerusalem Post quoted Major-General Benny Gantz, Israel's new military attaché to the United States, who said "The world understands [Iran is a problem] since [countries] are holding talks and imposing sanctions…but I'm not sure it understands the severity of the problem and its urgency."
Today, the Post quoted Israel's former head of military intelligence Major General Aharon Ze'evi-Farkash in perhaps the strongest criticism to date by any present or former Israeli official.
Here are some pertinent excerpts from today's article:
"[In short] ironically," he said, "[the NIE] opens the way for Iran to achieve its military nuclear ambitions."
"America can't act," he said, "and it's much harder for Israel to act as long as the US is in Iraq" -- since Israeli action would be seen as having tacit American support. And, he said, "the blow to the sanctions effort was devastating, precisely when it seemed that sanctions were going to have a real impact."
Daniel Pipes also offered this scathing criticism to the N.I.E. report on his blog:
"When key countries banded together to pass Security Council Resolution 1737 in December 2006, it caused the Iranian leadership to respond with caution and fear; but the NIE's soothing conclusion undercuts such widespread cooperation and pressure. When Washington pressures some Western states, Russian, China and the IAEA, they can pull it out of the drawer, wave it in the Americans' faces, and refuse to cooperate. Worse, the NIE has sent a signal to the apocalyptic-minded leadership in Tehran that the danger of external sanctions has ended, that it can go undisturbed about its bomb-building business."
"…war carried out by either U.S. or Israeli forces - becomes the more probable. Thus have short-sighted, small-minded, blatantly partisan intelligence bureaucrats, trying to hide unpleasant realities, helped engineer their own nightmare."
The sobering question of our time is what to do with Iran. Perhaps Republican candidate John McCain summed up the feeling of many: "There's only one thing worse than the United States exercising a military option. That is a nuclear-armed Iran."
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