November 16, 2006

Bin Laden and Al-Zawahiri's Influence Waning?

A piece in yesterday New York Times discusses a recent report from the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. The report found that "[Osama] bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, have had a relatively minor influence on the movement’s intellectual foundation. Among the network’s ideologists, they have come to be seen more as propagandists than strategic thinkers."

I think the report is right on target, and I discussed it yesterday on the Fox News's Channel's Live Desk with Martha McCallum program. I strongly encourage you to read the entire Times story, which I've linked to above, in order to get a sense of where the global jihad is heading.

In the meantime, here are some of my talking points from yesterday:

1) UBL and al-Zawahiri certainly laid the ideological foundation for many of today's ambitious young jihadists. But while UBL, al-Zawahiri (and the "inspiring" events of 9/11) have done much to propel the current global jihad, their disappearance from the scene wouldn't affect the situation on the ground one iota. Why? Because they're basically just propagandists at this point. Yes, al-Zawahiri is still involved in operational planning (UBL likely isn't). But he is, frankly, very replaceable in that department. The West would see the killing or capture of these two as a huge victory, and rightfully so.

But in the short term, their removal would actually galvanize jihadists worldwide and lead to retaliatory attacks. Could you imagine the riots in the streets of Islamabad, Jakarata, and Gaza if these "heroes" were taken out? And that's just it: UBL and al-Zawahiri may leave the scene, but they have left a worldwide network of radical young jihadists in their wake who don't need centralized planning or marching orders from Pakistan-based higher ups in order to wreak havoc.

2) Islamist scholars in Egypt and Saudi Arabia and on Internet chat rooms play a huge role in radicalizing young Muslims. One of these Skeikhs, Yusuf al-Qaradawi, even has a show on Al-Jazeera watched by millions of people. At this point, it's the ideology more so than the people who deliver it. Let's remember, Islam made its biggest gains around the world AFTER the Prophet Mohammed's death in 622 AD. He laid the groundwork, others after him ran with it.

3) The death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq is a great parallel here. Attacks In Iraq have remained steady even after his death, and Abu Ayyub Al-Masri has stepped right into his place and assumed control of al-Qaeda in Iraq. Al-Zarqawi was a galvanizing figure to jihadists, and his charismatic presence played a huge role in attracting young Muslims from around the world to jihad. Now he's gone, but the jihad in Iraq hasn't skipped a beat.

4) I've seen radical Muslims in the U.S. who quote Islamic scholars from the Muslim Brotherhood movement as their inspiration more so thanl al-Qaeda leaders. The Islamic Thinker's Society in Jackson Heights, Queens, is a prime example.